Razvoj modela za planiranje specijalističkoga usavršavanja doktora medicine u Republici Hrvatskoj

doctoral thesis

• Title (english): Development of a model for planning of specialist education of medical doctors in Croatia
• Author: Danko Relić
• Mentor: Jadranka Božikov (mentor)
• Committee member: Mirjana Kujundžić Tiljak (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Aleksandar Džakula (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Nada Čikeš (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; School of Medicine; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-07-14, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: BIOMEDICINE AND HEALTHCARE; Public Health and Health Care; Epidemiology
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 614 - Public health and hygiene. Accident prevention

Abstract

Osiguranje adekvatnog i održivog broja radnika u zdravstvu, sa odgovarajućim znanjima i vještinama, ključno je pitanje zdravstvene politike širom svijeta. Cilj disertacije je razviti model za simulaciju dinamike upućivanja na specijalističko usavršavanje doktora medicine u Republici Hrvatskoj te sustavnim ispitivanjem različitih scenarija procijeniti optimalnu strategiju kojom se osigurava stabilna opskrba specijalistima različitih specijalnosti i korigira procjep između ponude i potražnje.
Za izradu simulacijskog modela i za izvođenje simulacijskih eksperimenata korišten je programski paket Stella Architect v1.9.1 s grafičkim sučeljem za izradu i simulaciju modela metodom sistemske dinamike. Promjene u broju liječnika i njihovoj dobnoj raspodjeli projicirane su u kontekstu očekivanih budućih promjena hrvatske populacije pod različitim scenarijima koji pokrivaju razdoblje od 2020. do 2035. godine.
Razvijen je višedijelni model dinamike sustava kojim su obuhvaćene sve faze školovanja i rada liječnika specijalista, od upisa na studij medicine preko specijalističkog usavršavanja i radnog vijeka u zdravstvenom sustavu (ili nekom drugom sustavu koji zapošljava doktore medicine) do odlaska u mirovinu.
Sustavno ispitivanje različitih scenarija pokazuje da je sadašnja ukupna upisna kvota na studij medicine u Republici Hrvatskoj od 590 studenata godišnje dovoljna za zadovoljenje potreba za liječnicima u budućem razdoblju do 2035. godine.

Abstract (english)

Ensuring an adequate and sustainable number of health workers, with appropriate knowledge and skills, is a key health policy issue worldwide. The aim of this thesis was to develop a model for simulating the dynamics of referral to specialist training of medical doctors in the Republic of Croatia and systematically examine different scenarios to assess the optimal strategy to ensure a stable supply of specialists in various specialties and correct the gap between supply and demand.
Stella Architect v1.9.1 software package with a graphical interface for creating and simulating models using the system dynamics method was used to create a simulation model and to perform simulation experiments. Changes in the number of physicians and their age distribution are projected in the context of expected future changes in the Croatian population under different scenarios covering the period from 2020 to 2035.
A multi-part model of system dynamics has been developed, covering all phases of education and work of specialist physicians, from enrolment in medical studies through specialist training and working life in the health system (or another system that employs physicians) to retirement.
The results of simulation modelling of different scenarios indicate that the current total enrolment quota for the study of medicine in the Republic of Croatia of 590 students per year is sufficient to meet the needs for medical doctors in the future until 2035.

• Keywords: liječnici; specijalističko usavršavanje; planiranje kadrova u zdravstvu; Republika Hrvatska; simulacijsko modeliranje; sistemska dinamika
• Keywords (english): physicians; specialist education; human resources for health; Republic of Croatia; simulation modelling; system dynamics
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:105:535797
• Study programme: Title: Biomedicine and Health Sciences; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje biomedicine i zdravstvo (doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje biomedicine i zdravstvo)
• Type of resource: Text
• Extent: 109 str.
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2021-10-22 12:13:35